[Standard] Urabrask's Forge BO3 SB Decisions in Mono-Red Aggro

I've been playing Mono-Red Aggro since Foundations release, and one question I've struggled with is when to board in Urabrask's Forge after Game 1 in BO3.

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My list is the standard version everybody runs:

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MAIN DECK

4 Emberheart Challenger

4 Heartfire Hero

4 Hired Claw

4 Manifold Mouse

4 Monastery Swiftspear

4 Screaming Nemesis

4 Burst Lightning

4 Lightning Strike

4 Monstrous Rage

3 Witchstalker Frenzy

17 Mountain

4 Rockface Village

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SIDEBOARD

3 Lithomantic Barrage

4 Torch the Tower

3 Sunspine Lynx

2 Twisted Fealty

3 Urabrask's Forge

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For context, my record with the deck is 74-42 (64% WR); if we limit it to matches against meta decks my record is 56-32 (64% WR). This is just to clarify that I feel confident in piloting the deck and I've seen a wide array of different matchups - and yet the decision of when to bring in Urabrask's Forge is thorny and I haven't seen much discussion of this online.

The issue I run into is that you seemingly want this for grindier matchups, but the notable grindy decks in the format are in White and run Authority of the Consuls, making the Forge an absolute no-go. It's also bad against Blue decks running This Town Ain't Big Enough as they can bounce it to reset the oil counters and be up mana + an ETB.

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Here's how I see it against the main meta decks, along with my WR against them:

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Gruul Aggro (6-10, 38% WR), Mono-Red Aggro (6-0, 100% WR), Jeskai/Boros Convoke (4-2, 67% WR), Boros Aggro (0-2, 0% WR), Azorius Aggro (No Games), GW Cage (2-0, 100% WR) - too slow, game is over before the Forge matters. Also wow did not realize how bad my WR against Gruul was until just now.

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Dimir Enchantments (5-0, 100% WR), Esper Pixie (5-6, 45% WR), Simic/Sultai Terror (1-1, 50% WR), Temur Otters (3-1, 75% WR) - the Forge is a juicy target to get bounced by TTABE, don't bring in

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Domain Zur/Overlords (7-1, 88% WR), Mono-White Tokens (2-0, 100% WR) - exactly the matchups you'd bring the Forge in for pre-Foundations but Authority of the Consuls prevents us from doing so now

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Dimir Midrange (7-2, 78% WR), Golgari Midrange/Demons (7-8, 47% WR) - bring in 3 copies

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Azorius Oculus (1-0, 100% WR) - Weird matchup - possibly too slow and gets hit by all their bounce spells, plus some builds run Authority of the Consuls - I have actually never played a match against this deck in over 100 matches so I have no first-hand experience here (although I played the deck itself pre-Foundations and seem to recall Mono-Red players siding in the Forge against me at the time) EDIT: I've since played a match against an Oculus deck and opted not to side in the Forge - took it down 2-1. Thought about what it would feel like to play if it was in hand on turn 3 and felt bad - especially as they were holding up No More Lies.

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Anyway, I'm more than willing to learn why I'm wrong about or any or all of these matchups - but are we really only bringing in the Forge for 2 decks (Dimir/Golgari Midrange) or am I discounting its potential against other archetypes too easily?