We will reach superhuman (better than a human) level before 2028 for every cognitive task that can be solved by a Turing complete system. This is a narrow form of superhumanity, and is not a sufficient condition for AGI. AGI still requires the ability to navigate the dynamics of the world.
When models can run complex computations in parallel to explore large search spaces during their thinking process, receive feedback from the search to guide their reasoning, and be able to build the tools needed to perform a task, they will reach a superhuman stage for every problem that can be solved through computation (aka most of science and engineering tasks). These systems could lack the raw intelligence of the smartest humans, but their speed at their scale of computation will overpower.
The features mentioned above (running computation, self-verification, and the ability to design) in the next step from where we are now. With less than 3 years of development, we will have highly optimized systems that embody them. But they won't necessarily be AGI because they will lack some foundational aspects of human intelligence:
- Word simulation, given a random state s of the world, the ability for a model to predict a future that is defined in the world (or in a subdomain of the world). This means the prediction must follow physical laws and is in the space of possible outcomes starting from the state s.
- Modeling in a novel situation, the ability to predict functions to solve a problem in a novel situation. A novel situation is a situation that has not occured in the past. A redundant event is not novel.