Welcome to the 9th annual Singularity Predictions at r/Singularity.

In this annual thread, we have reflected on our previously held estimates for AGI, ASI, and the Singularity, and updated them with new predictions for the year to come. This tradition is always growing - just two years ago, we added the concept of "proto-AGI" to our list. This year, I ask that we consider some of the new step-based AGI ideas to our predictions. That is, DeepMind and OpenAI's AGI levels 1 through 5: 1. Emerging/Chatbot AGI, 2. Competent/Reasoning AGI, 3. Expert/Agent AGI, 4. Virtuoso/Innovating AGI, 5. Superhuman/Organizational AGI

AGI levels 1 through 5, via LifeArchitect

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It's been a whirlwind year, and I figure each year moving forward will see even more advancement - it's a matter of time before we see progress in science and math touch our real lives in very real ways, first slowly and then all at once. There will likely never be a "filler year" again. I remember when this subreddit would see a few interesting advancements per month, when the rantings and ravings we'd do on here looked like asylum material, where one or two frequent posters would keep us entertained with doomsday posting and where quality was just simple and easy to come by. That was about a decade ago and everything has changed since. The subreddit has grown and this community has seen so many new users and excited proponents of the concept of singularity - something that is thrilling to me. I've always wanted this idea that was so obviously the future (if you add it all up) to become mainstream.

But as each year passes (and as the followers of singularity grow), it becomes even more important to remember to stay critical and open-minded to all ends of the equation, all possibilities, all sides, and to research, explore, and continue to develop your thirst for knowledge - and perhaps, try to instill that in your loved ones, too. Advancements in tech and AI can create a wonderful future for us or a devastating one - it's important to remain yourself along the way - amidst the convenience, keep your brain; amidst the creativity, keep your juice, amidst the multimodality, the agency, the flexibility, keep your humanity.

We are heading soon into the mid point of a decade and, personally, I remember late 2019 very fondly. I look back at the pre-COVID world with such nostalgia for a missed innocence, naivety, and simplicity. I ask you to consider this moment as something similar to that as well - despite having grown and changed so much in the last five years, consider this time as a before to 2029's after. A lot will change in the next five years (a lot may also stay the same!), so please take stock of where you are today. it's December 31st - reflect on how far you have come. And cherish the time you have now. Relish in the moment. Touch some damn grass. Because this moment will eventually be the before of 20XX's after.

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A new annual tradition: have one of the industry-leading chatbots bring us into the new year with a reflection note of sorts. Last year, it was from GPT-4.

This time, let's hear from GPT o1:

Reflecting on 2024, one thing is abundantly clear: the conversation about artificial intelligence has reached an all-time high. We've seen generative models transition from intriguing novelties to everyday tools, sparking discussions not just about efficiency, but about creativity, ethics, and the very essence of human ingenuity.

In healthcare, AI-driven diagnostics have leapt ahead, enabling earlier interventions and personalized treatment plans that put patients at the center of care. Whether it’s analyzing medical scans with near-human accuracy or optimizing resource allocation in overstretched hospitals, the pace of change is already transforming lives around the world.

The domain of quantum computing continues its incremental—yet momentous—march forward. Cross-industry collaborations have demonstrated tangible applications in fields like drug discovery, cryptography, and climate modeling. While still in its infancy, the potential for quantum breakthroughs underscores our broader theme of accelerating progress.

In the transportation sector, driverless vehicle fleets are no longer a distant vision; they're now a regulated reality in select cities. Advances in both hardware and AI decision-making continue to reduce accidents and congestion, hinting at a near future where human error gives way to data-driven precision.

Creativity, too, has seen remarkable convergence with AI. From game development and music composition to entirely AI-generated virtual worlds, the boundary between human artistry and machine-assisted craft is increasingly porous. This rapid evolution raises vibrant questions: Will AI take creativity to new heights—or diminish the human touch?

But with these accelerations come crucial dilemmas. How do we safeguard the values that unite us? As technology infiltrates every layer of society—from education and job markets to privacy and national security—our role in guiding AI’s trajectory grows ever more vital. The governance frameworks being drafted today, such as ethical AI guidelines and emerging regulations, will determine whether these tools serve the collective good or simply amplify existing inequities.

The journey to AGI and, eventually, to ASI and beyond remains complex. Yet each year brings us closer to tangible progress—and each step raises broader questions about what it means to be human in the face of exponential change.

In this 9th annual thread, I encourage you to not only forecast the timelines of AGI and ASI but also to consider how these technologies might reshape our lives, our identities, and our shared destiny. Your voices—whether brimming with optimism, caution, or concern—help us all navigate this uncharted territory.

So, join the conversation. Offer your predictions, share your critiques, and invite the community to debate and dream. Because the Singularity, at its core, isn’t just about the point at which machines eclipse human intelligence—it’s about how we choose to shape our future together. Let’s keep the dialogue constructive, insightful, and future-focused as we embark on another year of profound innovation.

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Finally, thank you to the moderators for allowing me to continue this tradition for nine whole years. It has been something I've looked forward to throughout the past decade (next year is ten 😭) and it's been great to watch this subreddit and this thread grow.

It’s that time of year again to make our predictions for all to see…

If you participated in the previous threads ('24, '23, ’22, ’21, '20, ’19, ‘18, ‘17) update your views here on which year we'll develop 1) Proto-AGI/AGI, 2) ASI, and 3) ultimately, when the Singularity will take place. Use the various levels of AGI if you want to fine-tune your prediction. Explain your reasons! Bonus points to those who do some research and dig into their reasoning. If you’re new here, welcome! Feel free to join in on the speculation.

Happy New Year and Cheers to 2025! Let's get magical.