Probability of receiving?

I put myself on the list for my first Rolex, a black/blue GMT II on Jubilee. Is it realistic for me to receive this as my first watch from an AD?

Note that my salesperson is a good friend of a good friend, and made me feel like he could get it done for me within 8-10 months — but someone else (not related to watches) thinks I’m getting BS’d and will never get the call.

Just want to gauge my expectations.

Pic from google for reference. TIA

I put myself on the list for my first Rolex, a black/blue GMT II on Jubilee. Is it realistic for me to receive this as my first watch from an AD?

Note that my salesperson is a good friend of a good friend, and made me feel like he could get it done for me within 8-10 months — but someone else (not related to watches) thinks I’m getting BS’d and will never get the call.

Just want to gauge my expectations.

Pic from google for reference. TIA