How Often do ATL winners come from non-BP nominated films (aka is Culkin as sure a thing as we think?) - An Original Analysis

This one is a bit of an inverse of my earlier analysis this season of "What Does a Typical BP winner look like" where I had asked the question "what categories do Best Picture winning films most likely win (read the full post, but TLDR, a Directing and Screenplay win are the most common wins, with Actor (lead and supporting) and Editing noms being important even if they don't lead to a win). This is also somewhat of an sequel of an analysis I did in the past of "How Often do Non-BP films get ATL nominations? (about 8 films total for 11 noms, which is higher than this year). And of course I need to shout out /u/weirdmonkey69 who challenged my assertion that Culkin is a near lock just because he won the critics Trifecta (something associated with an 80% win rate at the moment).

Looking at the numbers from the 82nd Oscars through last year (ie the expanded Best Picture era)

  • Director - 15/15 winning directors were from BP nominees (9/15 from BP winners)
  • Actor - 13/15 winning actors were from BP nominees (though only 3/13 were from the BP winner). The exceptions were The Whale (95th) and Crazy Heart (82nd)
  • Actress - 10/15 winning actresses were from BP nominees (and only 2/10 were from the BP winner).
  • S Actor - 14/15 winning actors were from BP nominees (with 5/14 begng from the BP winner). The sole exception was Beginners (84th).
  • S Actress - 12/15 winning actresses were from BP nominees (with 2/15 being from BP winner). The exceptions were If Beale Street Could Talk (91st), I Tonya (90th, and The Danish Girl (88th)
  • O Screenplay - 15/15 winners were from BP nominees (and 4/15 were BP winners)
  • A Screenplay - 15/15 winners were from BP nominees (and 7/15 were BP winners).

Overall, only 11/105 winners of ATL categories in the past 15 years have been from non BP nominated films, with 8/11 of those from the Actress categories.

How does that impact this race?

The following catgories are entirely made up of BP nominees so this analysis is moot for them

  • Director (expected)
  • Actress (ironic given the usual stats)
  • S Actress (ironic given the usual stats)

Actor - The current non BP nominees are Domingo from Sing Sing, and Stan from Apprentice. Since these are currently consensusly ranked 4th and 5th respectively, I don't expect them to buck this trend.

S Actor - The currently non BP nominees are Culkin from A Real Pain, and Strong from Apprentice. This one is the most interesting as while Culkin does have the trifecta behind him, which again has an 80% win rate, he would be only teh 2nd person in 16 years to break the Best Supporting Actor / Best Picture relationship (behind Christopher Plummer in Beginners). All the other trifecta sweepers who won were in BP nominated films, except for Willem Dafoe, who was in The Florida Project, which was not a Best Picture nominee, which perhaps is another ding against Culkin. In this case, according to the rankings I have, Guy Pearce would be next up, followed by Ed Norton. who both have a BP film backing them (and some of the win competitive ones IMO).

Before you do freak out though, Dafoe did lose the Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG for Florida Project, so if Culkin continues to win this season he will probably buck the historical trend. Also sidenote how has Dafoe gone his career without a win at any of those award shows? Someone get this man an Oscar

Screenplays - Non BP nominees here are A Real Pain, September 5, and Sing Sing. As these categories always go to a BP nominee, and they are either 4th or 5th within their categories, I don't see this trend breaking soon.