MSTR Trade and Thoughts
This is my first post and my account is new, but I have been lurking on Reddit since 2020. I opened these trades in February and March of this year. My intention, if I can stomach the volatility, is to keep it open until late 2024 or early 2025 to see if Bitcoin runs up after ETF approval and the next halving. If I'm not in the money at that point, I will try to time my exit in mid to late 2025 to hopefully, at least, recoup my initial investment if possible.
When I purchased the LEAPS, my thoughts for success/failure probabilities were as follows:
25% - Loss of entire investment
25% - Breakeven
25% - 1-10X gain
25% - 10X + gain
The asymmetric risk profile of the trade made it appealing to me plus I am a legitimate believer in BTC and it's many use cases. I still believe the odds above are about right. I further believe that the toughest part of this trade will be to let it run and not cash out early.
If anyone is interested, I can post updates on this position every month or two so we can see how it ages or if I chicken out and close it early.