How did your debut race time compare to your predicted race time?

I'm curious to what athlete's first race time was. How did this time compare to what you predicted you would finish at? Particularly advanced/elite athletes who are seasoned in races.

Obviously, you can get an idea of how you'll perform based on your training, but with variables in the event that you may not account for. I believe the "Roxzone" seems to be a big varaible that many don't account for, so I'm just assuming Roxzone will consists of ~5 mins, and I have an idea where I stand with the run & stations.