A loose walk-through of the 2025 playoffs with Bill's gambling manifesto
- RULE NO. 1: Beware of the “Looked a Little Too Good the Previous Round” team... Barely applies since this is the first round, but we can go by what teams had momentum the final weeks of the regular season
knocks against: Ravens, Chargers, Bucs, Rams, Maybe? Probably just N/A for now
- RULE NO. 2: Don’t bet against God, puppies or gambling theories from Pakistan.
IDK, Bill
- RULE NO. 3: Don’t try to talk yourself into a “Nobody Believes In Us” team.
I think Philly always carries themselves as a nobody believes in us team, even when people believe in them. It's just how they are
Knocks against: Philly, Minny, Denver, Steelers. Maybe the Texans
- RULE NO. 4: Beware of any team that might use a major off-field distraction as a galvanizing force leading up to a big playoff game.
I don't think anything applies to this, this year
- RULE NO. 5: Beware of the “Everybody Believes In Us” team.
There's a LOT of online optimism (and player confidence) against a Lions team I still think is flawed
Knocks to Lions, Bills, Ravens
- RULE NO. 6: Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win.
Can you really see these below teams winning a playoff game in the year 2025?
Knocks to Washington, Denver
- RULE NO. 7: Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather.
Nothing yet, although look out if Darnold has to go to Philly
Knocks to Maybe Minnesota, maybe the Chargers (future rounds)
- RULE NO. 8: Beware of any and all aging QBs in cold weather unless they drink half their body weight in water every day, get 10 hours of sleep, master every conceivable pliability exercise, have lots of sex with a supermodel wife, don’t drink alcohol, don’t eat inflammatory foods, don’t smoke or do drugs, improbably become faster in their late 30s and basically behave like an alien.
A lotta young QBs in these playoffs. Also Russell Wilson
Knocks to Pittsburgh
- RULE NO. 9: Severely discount anything that happened in the first five to six weeks of the regular season.
Yeah, this manifesto seems specifically built to discredit the 2024 Steelers lol
Knocks to Pittsburgh, maybe the Texans, maybe the Commanders
- RULE NO. 10: When in doubt, gravitate toward one pick that (a) would screw over the most gamblers and experts, and (b) would definitely go against the single worst gambler you know
I don't hang around any gamblers but I *think* a lot of them are going to ride Minnesota. Sal and Bill already seem to have that mentality. Call Darnold the tease killer
Knocks to Minnesota, maybe Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and Buffalo. Potentially all the favorites, I guess.
- RULE NO. 11: Don’t ever talk yourself into a terrible QB, ever, for any reason.
Pretty solid year for QBs. But there are two rookies on the road
Knocks to Washington and Denver. Probably Pittsburgh. Maybe Green Bay depending on Love's health
- RULE NO. 12: Beware of any team that celebrated the previous weekend’s victory like it had just won the Super Bowl.
The Lions celebrate every win like the Super Bowl so they barely count. Baltimore kinda went hard too, but they won the division, so understandable. I disagree with this rule, Bill.
Slight knocks to Detroit and Baltimore
- RULE NO. 13: Before you wager on a team, make sure “Marty Schottenheimer, Herm Edwards, Wade Phillips, Norv Turner, Andy Reid, Dan Quinn, John Fox, Jason Garrett, Anyone Named Mike, Anyone Described As Andy Reid’s Pupil and Anyone With the Last Name Mora” isn’t its head coach.
Knocks to KC and Pittsburgh, I guess. And Washington obviously
- RULE NO. 14: Before every playoff game, rate the coaches and quarterbacks from 1 to 10, add up their scores, then make sure you’re OK backing a team with said score.
THis is stupid Bill
- RULE NO. 15: Don’t try to be a hero, just try to win money.
IDK, knocks to Denver, I guess? Don't take the biggest underdog
- RULE NO. 16: Take one last look at the quarterbacks.
Knocks to Denver, Pittsburgh, maybe Minnesota and Houston (sorry!)
- RULE NO. 17: There’s plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach.
Sean Payton is sneaky bad crew, rise up!
Knocks to Denver, Pittsburgh, Houston, Tampa Bay