My prediction for all three races. Completely unbiased, just looking at historical data, polling, and early voting. Feel free to AMA
Let me start by saying this isn't necessarily what I hope happens. I am a Harris supporter this time around but I don't know if she'll be able to pull it off.
My margins for the maps are: Tilt <1%, Lean <5%, Likely <12%, Solid >12% (But note they may be off for the House map since I made it starting with 270towin's existing ratings and they don't all match my margins).
PRESIDENTIAL:
This isn't what I hope happens but as of right now it seems like the most likely thing to happen, with perhaps Georgia going blue again. I'm not too confident but this is what it looks like it may be. I'd be ready to explain my reasoning for any of the states.
Swing state margins: NC R+3, AZ R+1.1, PA R+0.2, WI R+0.2, GA R+0.2, NV D+0.8, MI D+1.4
BUT if Harris ends up winning, this is what I'd think the margins look like: NC R+2, AZ R+0.6, PA D+0.4, WI D+0.4, GA D+0.1, NV D+1.3, MI D+1.6
In which case the map looks like this:
SENATE:
I accidentally didn't save the one without toss-ups but I feel like this map is mostly self-explanatory. I personally would project Moreno to win the Ohio seat but it has gotten closer and I personally wouldn't be surprised if Brown won it.
HOUSE:
And I'm not explaining every single district here, sorry!
I think that the House race may actually be closer than the presidential race. I find it funny the Polymarket odds favor Dems and 538 favors the GOP. I also see it going 218 to 217, regardless of party control.
Thoughts?