Demi Moore will win. She has what Toni Collette and Lupita didn’t have

Unpopular opinion, I don’t think Demi Moore was that great in the Substance. The grotesqueness of the role and the intensity of the story is doing all the work. I think there were a lot of scenes where she could have brought extra vulnerability and embarrassment to them and it just didn’t happen. The scene where she was going to go on the date but kept chickening out by comparing herself to the billboard is a very well written one, the writing was doing all the work. When I think if a role is deserving of a win, I ask myself if I can see anyone else in the same age range replacing the actor or actress in the movie: Blanchett, Winlset, and Regina King would have elevated it way more than what Demi gave in that scene.

People use Toni and Lupita as examples why she won’t get in because it’s horror. But, clearly she’s getting way more precursors than them atm. If Moore wins the Golden Globe, she will win the Oscar. This role speaks DIRECTLY to all generations of the Academy. As we know, Hollywood loves stories about itself. And the older actor branch will relate to her playing an “aging actress”. But she has the benefit of ALSO being in a “hip”, experiment art movie that the younger generation is obsessed with. She also has a personal comeback narrative, and the Bruce Willis narrative. Wining the first televised award will catapult her chances.

She is the big favorite here. Everything is going for her.