It's a Bear Market - accept it.

If you’ve been following me on TradingView, you’ll recall that in mid-October, I highlighted that the market had entered a "sell on rise" phase, with no new all-time highs on the horizon in the near term. While no one, including me, can claim 100% accuracy in predicting market movements, my two decades of experience in technical analysis have taught me one thing—charts always give signals about upcoming moves; the key is developing the skill to interpret them correctly.

Currently, I maintain a "minimum" target of Nifty at 21,300 and BankNifty at 46,000 before we might see consolidation and the groundwork for a fresh upward move. However, this shift will take time. After enjoying nearly five years of a bull market since the COVID crash, the market is naturally moving through a corrective phase. It’s essential to accept that nothing in the market lasts forever, not even the best phases.

In October, the charts and candlestick patterns were already hinting at an impending decline. Although the reasons were unclear back then, the developments since have validated those signals. Factors such as aggressive selling by FIIs, lower GDP growth expectations, and rising NPAs in the banking sector are now driving the market lower. Technical analysis is powerful because it often reflects the market’s direction before the news becomes apparent.

Despite the negativity, there is a silver lining. SIP contributions from Indian households continue to grow month-on-month, providing a consistent inflow of capital that empowers mutual funds to stabilize the market and limit the downside. This resilience is a significant factor supporting the broader structure of the market.

However, challenges remain. The financial system is under pressure, with Indian banks reporting higher NPAs and substantial write-offs of bad loans. These issues cloud the sector’s outlook, but the RBI is taking proactive measures to strengthen the banking system. While these actions will take time to yield results, a stronger financial sector will ultimately lay the foundation for the next bull rally.

I’m sharing this perspective because I’ve seen an influx of biased and misleading views on social media. Many posts are designed to attract attention rather than provide meaningful insights, often misleading novice traders and investors. My focus has always been on providing grounded, chart-based analysis to help others make informed decisions.

I’ve shared my detailed view on TradingView (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/NIFTY/NKmsefCA-Nifty-Outlook-for-2025-Are-We-Entering-a-Bear-Market/) and would love to hear your thoughts. If you have your own analysis or observations, feel free to share them.

Markets are ever-changing, and adapting to these changes is key. Always rely on logic, stay disciplined, and remember—charts never lie if you know how to read them.