Overlooking the risk of dying

So over the weekend, my boss (45M) passed away in his sleep suddenly and without clear indication. He was a healthy, fit guy (ex military) and a great boss, which I was lucky to have since I know many loathe their bosses.

But definitely had me revisiting my risk profile, where I mostly worry if my portfolio could last 30, 40, 50 years based on sequence risk returns and such. But we often forget death (or major disability). The rich, broke or dead calculator does a good job helping visualize this.

I’m 36M, according to the SSA actuarial tables, there was already a 2.4% chance of dying before making it this far after a healthy live male birth, which I’ve overcome. Living 10 more years, to 46, is another 2.2% chance of dying. 20 years, to 56, a 6.3% chance I croak, and to 66, a 14.5% chance I never see that. And that’s discounting other things like serious disabilities or impairments to qualify of life as well.

Compared to a meager 3-4% failure rate after 40 years for a portfolio and obsessing with SWRs (I’m targeting a 3.6% SWR) and portfolio composition, and also given the high likelihood of ability to go back to work in some capacity if things go south, definitely has me rethinking my strategy. Maybe just use 4%, which would let me retire at the end of this year. And if in 5-10 years things look bleak portfolio wise, I’ll be early/mid 40s with a Masters degree in engineering. Feels like I’d be able to muster up something.

Anybody else have a life an event like this where you realize maybe you have been obsessing about not being broke at 85+, and realizing that’s the least of your concerns, statistically?