Analysing Raph/Lewa’s Ballon d’Or chances

I see it unfolding like this:

Scenario 1 > Liverpool PL + UCL, Barça La Liga + Super Cup + CDR

  1. Salah
  2. Raph / Lewa
  3. Raph / Lewa

Scenario 2 > Barça La Liga + UCL + Super Cup + (optionally) CDR, Liverpool PL

  1. Raph / Lewa
  2. Raph / Lewa

The order will depend on Lewa finishing as top scorer of both competitions (likely him)

  1. Salah

Scenario 3 > Barça UCL + Super Cup + CDR, Liverpool PL

  1. Raph / Lewa
  2. Raph / Lewa

The order will give preference to who won the KO games for the team (clutch goals) then who has more G/A (preference to goals) in their domestic league + more G/A in the UCL.

  1. Salah

Scenario 4 > Barça La Liga + Super Cup only + Liverpool PL only + UCL winning team also wins either one or more of the following trophies: Domestic league other than La Liga and PL and/or domestic cup(s) and/or UEFA Nations League with their country [I’ll refer to him as Wildcard]

  1. Salah/Wildcard
  2. Salah/Wildcard
  3. Lewa / Raph
  4. Lewa / Raph

This will come down to many factors namely:

  1. PR (especially if it’s revealed that it’s Salah’s last season in the Prem)
  2. Salah breaks Haaland’s record
  3. The UCL winner (wildcard) also wins the Bundesliga / Serie A as one of the top 5 in G/A and (optionally) their domestic cup and/or UNL. The Wildcard can be:

Harry Kane if Bayern win UCL + Bundesliga (as top scorer in the latter)

Mbappé if Real win UCL + Copa del Rey and/or France wins UNL

Thuram if Inter win UCL + Serie A (as top scorer) and/or France wins UNL

One of AC Milan’s leading players if AC Milan win UCL + Coppa Italia (they already have the Super Cup)

Alvarez/Griezmann if they win UCL + Copa del Rey

Scenario 5 > Barça La Liga + Super Cup CDR + Liverpool PL only + UCL winning team only wins UCL and no other trophy

Sub Scenario 5.1 > Madrid is the winner and Mbappé is top 3 UCL goalscorers

  1. Lewa/Mbappé
  2. Lewa/Mbappé
  3. Salah / Raph
  4. Salah / Raph

Sub Scenario 5.2 > UCL winner other than Madrid

  1. Lewa/Salah
  2. Lewa/Salah
  3. Raph/UCL winner
  4. Raph/UCL winner

Scenario 6 > Barça La Liga + Super Cup, Liverpool PL, UCL winning team wins no other trophy

For example Madrid win UCL and Atletico win CDR or vice versa, or Bayern wins the UCL only, or Inter wins the UCL only

  1. Salah/Lewa
  2. Salah/Lewa
  3. UCL winning team member with most G/A overall
  4. Raph

Here I think the PR tactics will still push Salah for his G/A numbers unless Lewa wins the European golden boot and ends up top scorer in both La Liga and UCL.

There are several other scenarios, those are the ones I think are most likely. It will depend a lot on the UCL results since there are no international tournaments beside UNL which is not that prestigious anyways.